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As tensions in the Middle East are escalating, so are conversations in Canada. Over the weekend, the United States launched airstrikes on three nuclear sites in Iran. In response, Iran fired missiles at U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq on Monday.
Former Canadian Ambassador to Israel, and a Senior Fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, Jon Allen, joined the Evan Bray Show with guest host Brent Loucks to talk about what is coming next for the U.S. now that it has stepped directly into the Israel-Iran conflict. He also weighed in on what it would take to achieve lasting peace in the region and shared some skepticism on whether Iran actually had a nuclear bomb.
BRENT LOUCKS: What do you think is going to happen in the coming days or weeks ahead?
JON ALLEN: That is very hard to predict. The tit-for-tat continues between Iran and Israel as we speak. Donald Trump went from saying that regime change was not in the cards to over the weekend, once again talking about regime change, which would be unfortunate, I think.
I just saw some reports that Israel is now sending signals to Iran that they would hope that this back and forth could come to an end. I think that would be the best outcome.
There are alternatives. Iran can do everything, from moving very quickly to try and build a bomb with what they have left, to hitting American sites in the region, to hitting the Gulf States and their oil facilities, to mining the Strait of Hormuz, all the way to terrorism, asymmetrical warfare. They’ve got many choices, but none of them are particularly good for Iran.
Do you think this is a situation that is ever going to be resolved? Are we ever going to see true peace in the Middle East?
ALLEN: Well, I think true peace in the Middle East is going to come with new leadership. Iran desperately needs a different kind of leadership. The Shah wasn’t the perfect leader by any stretch, but the Ayatollahs have brought death and brutality within Iran, and they’ve brought death and destruction abroad.
I think Israel desperately needs new leadership as well. This is a big success for Prime Minister Netanyahu, but he still has a war that is 19 months old in Gaza, the Palestinians need new leadership.
So it’s a generalized problem, dictators in the Middle East. We’ve got some hope in Lebanon and Syria right now, but it depends on who’s running the country and whether or not they want a dictatorship or some different, more democratic form of government.
We’ve seen so many years under the Ayatollah, the whole religious governance that we see happening there. Do you think that’s something that’s going to be easily replaced?
ALLEN: That’s why I alluded to concerns about regime change. We’ve seen some very, very unfortunate examples of efforts to force regime change in Iraq, Libya, and Yemen, just to name a few.
In Iran, it is absolutely unclear what might replace the Ayatollah and this current regime, if it were removed, there is the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that could take over.
There are various other groups in play. The country could disintegrate into a kind of civil war. So one has to be careful about regime change.
On the other hand, of course, Iranian Canadians and Iranians around the world would like nothing more than to see a new government, perhaps not one like the Shah, but one that was moderate and could focus on the interests of the Iranian people and the economy, as opposed to the enrichment of uranium and the possibility of a nuclear bomb.
We often hear that if Iran were to get the bomb, they’d use it to destroy Israel. Why would anyone see that as a path forward, regardless of their beliefs? Is this rooted in religion or something else?
ALLEN: I really don’t think, even if they got the bomb, and I don’t think they were quite as close as Donald Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, would have you believe. Even if they did get it, they would not be using it, because they would know, just as North Korea would know, that they would be obliterated if they used that.
India has the bomb. Pakistan has the bomb. Israel has the bomb, the P5 all have the bomb. Russia, of course, has the bomb. People have it and don’t want to give it up, because they want to protect themselves and they want to tell the world, ‘Don’t come at me.’ As you can imagine, the Ukrainians right now are a little bit unhappy about the fact that they gave up their nuclear program.
It’s not necessarily that Iran wanted to obliterate Israel. They said it. They said they wanted to obliterate the United States, both highly unlikely, but they wanted to be close enough so that nobody was going to do what Donald Trump did and what Israel has been doing. That’s what they’re concerned about.”
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