Murray Wood: Who's hot... and who's not
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A local business analyst says U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comments on ending trade talks with Canada aren’t likely to cause a major impact on the Canadian market.
On Friday morning, Trump posted on social media that he was ending negotiations in response to a $75 million ad campaign by the Ontario government that aired on American TV stations featuring former president Ronald Reagan discussing tariffs.
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Paul Martin said the Canadian stock market would likely continue on with business as usual and won’t react much to Trump’s latest announcement.
“The general perception on this one is that it doesn’t really mean anything. I think it’s being perceived in Canada as the typical Donald Trump, passive-aggressive negotiating stance,” he said.
“A couple of weeks ago, when the prime minister was in the White House, wasn’t he (Trump) saying Canada will be really happy with the way this negotiation is going? Today, it’s terminated completely. These are bargaining tactics, it’s sort of his style — he recognizes some progress being made and blows it up because he wants to get some more leverage and keep extracting concessions from the other side.”
Martin thinks Trump is likely to continue on this track until he receives concessions.
On Friday afternoon, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he will pull the ads after the weekend slate of World Series games.
Martin said there doesn’t appear to be a sector in the country that views this latest announcement by the president as pivotal, though the auto industry has been greatly impacted by the Canada-U.S. trade war.
Jason Childs, economics professor at the University of Regina, said that the announcement isn’t likely to do much in the short term, especially since most trade between Canada and the U.S. is covered by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
Childs said how long Trump’s stance on this issue lasts depends on whether or not Canada behaves in a “vaguely contrite” manner or not.
In Trump’s post, the U.S. president accused Canada of launching the ad campaign to “interfere with the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court, and other courts” ahead of a November decision about whether or not Trump can unilaterally impose tariffs without congressional approval.
“I don’t know if (Trump’s claim) carries any meaningful weight, but if that’s even got a whiff of truth to it, there’s going to have to be some sort of climb-down from our side before we can we can get back on track,” Childs said.
“If (Trump’s claim) is just cover for something else, this can blow over fairly quickly.”
Childs said it’s a dangerous game for Ottawa to go tit-for-tat with the U.S., as it runs the risk of making Canada appear unfriendly to business.
Childs pointed to recent decisions like Ottawa choosing to slap the automaker Stellantis with import tariffs on American vehicles.
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