Wildfire smoke shapes weather patterns, and not for the better

Persistent wildfire smoke is not only reducing visibility and air quality, but it’s also reshaping Western Canada’s summer weather outlook.

Meteorologist Matt Makens, of Makens Weather, said sustained smoke and heat in the atmosphere create feedback loops that actively shape weather patterns.

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The presence of smoke in the atmosphere changes how rainfall develops, as water vapour clings to smoke particles, potentially altering the amount and spread of precipitation. Smoke can also act like a blanket, limiting surface heating and, in turn, impacting broader temperature dynamics.

“The weather pattern is getting locked into what it wants to do for the rest of summer… we’re going to get this perpetual flow of smoke,” Makens said, with impacts expected across Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and into the northern U.S.

Makens noted that smoke has been part of his summer forecast models since April, with a growing influence as snowpack levels dropped and fire risks climbed.

Looking ahead, he’s watching a large pool of warm water in the northern Pacific. If that shifts toward the Gulf of Alaska, it could intensify heat and dryness across B.C. and Alberta.