Province releases new COVID modelling numbers, regional vaccination rate breakdowns

Case rates of COVID-19 are coming down in Saskatchewan, but the province still leads Canada in hospitalization and ICU rates.

During a technical briefing with reporters Thursday, Dr. Saqib Shahab — the province’s chief medical health officer — presented new COVID modelling numbers, including hospitalization rates and vaccination rates broken down by regions.

The information is current as of Tuesday.

“Daily hospital and ICU admissions have decreased 29 and 41 per cent from two weeks ago,” Shahab said. “Non-ICU and ICU census has decreased 30 and 22 per cent from two weeks ago … We still need to remain vigilant as our numbers come down.”

As of Thursday, there were 161 cases, down 52 per cent from Oct. 19. There were 38 cases in ICU — the lowest that number has been since Sept. 10.

According to the report, 66.6 per cent of COVID ICU admissions were admitted to hospital just 24 hours earlier.

“It shows that, a, if you’re feeling unwell, get tested,” Shahab urged. “There may be many pre-hospital treatments that may be available to you to reduce your risk of severe outcomes. And b, it also shows that things can escalate quickly — and all the more reason to get vaccinated.”

A series of four scenarios was presented, with the best-case scenario showing slower vaccination waning and lower population mixing starting Nov. 5. That would result in about 25 cases provincewide per day by January and fewer than 10 per day by March of next year.

The worst-case scenario showed a potential fifth wave with faster waning from vaccines, lower booster uptake, and lower mixing behaviour which would include adding more personal contacts. That could result in another spike of around 300 cases per day in January, then declining to about 50 cases per day by March.

“We have to do everything to avoid Scenario No. 1, which is a fifth wave anytime in January and February — and stay the course,” Shahab said.

Vaccination rates

A more detailed breakdown of vaccination rates in regions across the province was also presented.

It showed, on average, first and second dose uptake in the far northwest zone is still less than 50 per cent.

Large portions of the far north, north-central and southwest regions and small areas in the southeast still show vaccination rates for both first and second doses between 50 and 69 per cent.

“There’s no reason why we in Saskatchewan should not have a high vaccination uptake, and many rural communities have vaccine uptake. Having said that, many communities that are below 50 per cent which is very concerning,” Shahab cautioned.

About half of Saskatchewan’s population is located in Regina and Saskatoon, which have overall second dose vaccination rates at 82 and 80 per cent respectively.

But within the two cities, there are still large areas where the rates remain low, including the North Central, Old Warehouse and Eastview neighbourhoods in Regina — where vaccine uptake is on average just 50 to 69 per cent.

In Saskatoon, areas with lower vaccine uptake include the West Industrial area, King George, Pleasant Hill, Riversdale, Caswell Hill, Confederation Park, The Willows, Stonebridge and University Heights. All areas are between 70 and 79 per cent.

Shahab said last May and June, vaccination clinics were in “all parts” of urban centres. Special vaccine clinics were also advertised months later in core neighbourhoods, and there have been vaccines available at community centres, shelters and even a vaccine bus going to various areas at one point.

“We need to make vaccine access not equal but equitable, not just in urban areas but throughout the province,” Shahab said. “And we’ve done really well right from the beginning. Moderna vaccines went right straight to the far north as soon as they were received.”

He added health officials need to continue to address challenges which can be either geographical, physical (such as transportation), hesitancy, misinformation and other concerns.

The Saskatchewan Health Authority’s Derek Miller added some areas with lower uptake may be in more vulnerable populations and the SHA is continuing to work with partner organizations to try and get more needles into arms.