Province’s top doctor says drop in test positivity is good sign

Saskatchewan’s weekly COVID-19 numbers showed a record number of hospitalizations but also a big drop in test positivity rate.

Dr. Saqib Shahab, the province’s chief medical health officer, told 650 CKOM that hospitalizations appear to be peaking. That means a decline should be on the horizon.

But COVID is certainly still active in the province, despite lower case numbers.

“We will continue to see for a while hospitalizations of people with COVID,” Shahab said.

The province’s top doctor said he was surprised to see the test positivity rate come down in Thursday’s report given that rate is based on PCR testing, which the province has limited to people with the most severe symptoms and who are most at risk.

Just a few weeks ago, Saskatchewan was showing a positivity rate of 30 to 40 per cent. As of Thursday, it was reported to be at 20 per cent.

Shahab said that is a “good sign.”

“It shows along with all the other evidence we have that we likely peaked a week or two ago — a bit earlier in Regina and Saskatoon, but then likely crossed a peak in south rural and parts of the north,” Shahab explained.

Hospitalizations will likewise peak first in Regina and Saskatoon, Shahab said, with the south rural and northern regions following behind at slower rates.

The chief medical health officer said he doesn’t look at daily hospital numbers, which are “nothing to do with COVID.”

“There’s always daily bed reports and that’s just to load level and manage beds,” said Shahab, noting the number always fluctuates with new patients and discharges.

Shahab said the purpose of the weekly report is to show the trends COVID is presenting in the province, and this is what he relies on for his own data.

“I think most important is the trend by week,” he said.

Hospitalizations showed about three per cent fewer incidental cases of the virus, meaning a higher percentage of people with COVID or a COVID-related illness were in hospital than the previous report.

“That’s just a function of, as the wave passes through a community or a province, the incidental (rate) goes up,” Shahab said, adding similar data has been seen as Omicron moves through other provinces, the United Kingdom and the United States.

He noted that now, as the wave recedes, fewer incidental cases will likely be reported.

Shahab also pointed to the two-week lag showing up in the data, but said those in the hospital now are generally experiencing a shorter stay and less intensive care is required.

Older and unvaccinated patients have been among the most significantly consistent in hospital. Shahab said vaccines, and especially boosters, have worked in preventing people from being hospitalized because of the virus.

“I think this is a flag for people who still haven’t gotten a booster. Please do get it, especially if you are 40 or older or if you have any risk factors,” he shared.

About two-thirds of the population has risk factors like diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, asthma, other chronic lung diseases, or are pregnant, Shahab said, which all equate to common risk factors.

“It is critical that anyone in this category is fully vaccinated and gets their booster dose,” he said.

After 42 deaths were reported in the weekly update, Shahab shared his condolences to the families who have lost a loved one. He noted many of the deaths are attributed to those who are most vulnerable to COVID-19 — those who are older or who have underlying risk factors.

Now that the province has lifted proof of vaccination, Shahab said he has “no concerns.”

He shared that proof of vaccination worked well during the province’s Delta wave but has been less useful in recent weeks. That’s why, Shahab said, the province decided to lift the restriction two weeks sooner than planned.

“Really, it had served its purpose,” Shahab said.

As Saskatchewan nears the end of its final health order — the mask mandate — Shahab said it’s perfectly acceptable and understandable that some people will be excited to remove their masks, while others will opt to continue wearing them.

“I certainly will (continue to wear a mask) in crowded indoor locations that aren’t properly ventilated,” Shahab said.

He especially encouraged that sort of caution for people who haven’t had Omicron, those who are older, those with any risk factors, and those who interact with people in these categories who might want to help protect them from the virus.