‘Screwed either way’: Republican senator fights backlash over Trump tariffs in Maine

FREDERICTON — U.S. tariffs on Canada have played an outsized role in the Senate race in Maine, but experts say there may not be any relief coming for Canadians regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s midterms.

Maine, a Northeastern U.S. state bordering both Quebec and New Brunswick by land, relies heavily on Canadian trade.

Federal government figures show the state imports $4.1 billion in goods from Canada each year, making it Maine’s largest trading partner.

That includes $2 billion in heating oil, more than half a billion dollars from the forestry industry and $263 million in electricity from New Brunswick, among other categories.

Since U.S. President Donald Trump started the trade war, Maine’s forest product exports to Canada have dropped by 20 per cent and caused job losses, the state’s Gov. Janet Mills said in an column in August.

The number of trips by Canadians into Maine dipped sharply last year, according to an analysis of border data by the Maine Center for Economic Policy.

In neighbouring New Brunswick, U.S. tariffs have strained the province’s forestry sector and manufacturing base and cut into the bottom lines of breweries.

The economic impacts in Maine have become a key obstacle for incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is hoping to hold off Democratic party challenger Troy Jackson and return to the upper chamber of the U.S. legislature for a sixth term.

Polling shows many voters in Maine are unhappy with Trump policies that have pushed up energy prices and caused Canadian tourism to plummet.

“People in Maine are kind of appalled by what’s happened,” said Amy Fried, a former political science chair at the University of Maine.

Fried said Canada has played a central role in this election in a way she hasn’t seen in decades.

As one of the states where the result could be close, Maine may determine if Democrats are able to claim the Senate and provide some opposition to Trump.

“And the animosity of Trump towards Canada … he seems to revel in hurting this long economic and military relationship,” Fried said in an interview.

But politics watchers say it’s not clear which result would offer a win for Canada, or if a win is even likely.

Collins has pitched herself as an independent who isn’t afraid of breaking with her party and voting against Trump on tariffs she has long opposed.

Jackson, meanwhile, says Collins hasn’t done enough as a Republican to push back against the levies that have disrupted Maine’s forestry, seafood and tourism industries.

At a debate last month, Collins said she successfully lobbied the White House to get Canadian concrete, pulp and road salt removed from the tariff list.

Jackson snapped back, saying, “We can’t eat road salt.”

The exchange went viral and spurred “let them eat road salt” memes from progressives comparing it to a modern “let them eat cake” moment.

Then, with less than two weeks before the midterm elections, Collins announced the U.S. was lifting tariffs on nine categories of Canadian goods she said are crucial to Maine’s hard-hit agricultural industries.

It was seen as an attempt by Trump, who has not campaigned in Maine this election cycle, to help Collins keep her seat.

But in the same executive order lifting some tariffs, Trump imposed new levies on dozens of new categories such as cocoa powder, paints and varnishes, shampoos, vinyl flooring, archery equipment and carpets.

Lori Turnbull, a political-science professor at Dalhousie University, says there isn’t a way for Canada to win despite being at least partly on the ballot in Maine.

Turnbull noted Trump relies on his presidential powers to exact tariffs, going around the legislative branch of the U.S. government.

“I don’t think that any midterm outcome is a guaranteed win for Canada. I think we could still get screwed either way,” she said by phone.

When it comes to tariffs, University of Maine political science chair Mark Brewer says the Maine Senate race is ultimately about who can best use their influence in Washington, D.C.

Brewer pointed to Collins’ ability to get tariff exemptions from the White House as a tangible win that takes some wind out of Jackson’s sails.

“This is just the latest example of something real and concrete that backs up Collins’ claim … motivations in some ways don’t matter,” he said.

As for Canada, Brewer said he won’t be surprised if the tariffs exempted on Oct. 23 are reimposed after the midterms.

The Senate races in Maine and Michigan could prove critical to control of Congress. Democrats need to achieve a net gain of four seats to get the Senate majority.

Polls in Maine close at 8 p.m. eastern standard time.

The midterms offer Americans their first opportunity to have their say on Trump’s widespread tariff regime that started after he won back the presidency in 2024.

Trump’s levies on a swath of countries triggered retaliatory tariffs by Ottawa and a trade war that has damaged industries and raised costs on both sides of the border.

The last round of trade talks between the two sides broke down in August, but Trump claimed Sunday that Canada and the United States are “very close” to reaching a trade deal.

Trump told reporters the two countries have a “concept of a very good deal” that would be great for America, American farmers and Canada.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said on social media that he’d had a “good conversation” with Trump on the future of trade.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 3, 2026.

— With files from Kelly Geraldine Malone and The Associated Press

Eli Ridder, The Canadian Press