Parties line up candidates as federal byelections approach in 6 ridings

OTTAWA — A pastor and longtime Conservative is running as an independent candidate in an upcoming federal byelection in Ontario after the party chose to bypass a local nomination contest and appoint Brantford Mayor Kevin Davis as its candidate.

Dave Carrol’s decision to run independently adds intrigue to the Brantford-Brant South byelection as it could draw votes from the Conservatives, who were already expected to face a tough challenge from the Liberals.

“Party leadership chose to appoint another candidate, skipping the process we have valued for decades,” Carrol, who previously sought the Conservative nomination, said on social media. “That decision, while legal, has been received poorly, and rightfully so.”

Brantford-Brant South is one of six ridings up for grabs in Ontario, Quebec and Saskatchewan after the departure of several MPs, including Conservative Larry Brock, who represented the Brantford area for almost five years.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has not yet called any of the byelections but is expected to do so shortly.

In the Saskatchewan riding of Yorkton-Melville, the Liberals are running candidate Aaron Kienle, the mayor of Yorkton, against Conservative Nelson Pohl, a farmer who owns a furnace cleaning company.

That riding has been held by the Conservatives and its predecessors the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance for more than 30 years. The Liberals have not won there since the riding was first created in 1968.

Cathay Wagantall, who was elected as a Conservative MP in 2015, won with more than 77 per cent of the vote in 2025. She resigned in August.

When a seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant, the prime minister must call an election between 11 and 180 days after the member’s resignation.

A byelection campaign can be as short as 36 days or as long as 50 days, putting the date for voting somewhere between 47 days and seven months after the seat opens up.

Carney has had a string of byelection success already this year.

Byelections were held in April in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne — a vote the Supreme Court ordered redone after issues with mail-in ballots during the 2025 election — along with the Liberal strongholds of University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest in Toronto. The three Liberal wins coming on the heels of five MPs who crossed the floor to the Liberals, cemented Carney’s majority government.

The Liberals swept another three ridings on Aug. 31, flipping a Conservative seat in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord and holding seats in Beaches-East York and North Vancouver-Capilano.

Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at Pollara Strategic Insights, said in an email that “timing is everything in byelections, and the timing is great for Carney right now.”

“He’s been riding a wave of public support since trade talks broke down in August,” said Arnold. “I’m sure the Liberals have been itching to call these byelections to take advantage of that, but they needed to wait until various other municipal and provincial elections got cleared off the calendar.”

Arnold said it’s been 30 years since Canada has had at least six byelections on the same day, so this could provide a rare snapshot of the parties’ current standings.

“Consider this the ‘Canadian midterms,'” he said.

Arnold added that there’s “a lot of pressure on” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

“He has not performed well in byelections so far this year and a bad byelection result can create internal pressure,” he said. “Just look at what happened to (former prime minister Justin) Trudeau following his loss in St. Paul’s in 2024.

“In some ways, Carney could be the big loser of these byelections if he wins too big and this causes the Conservatives to dump Poilievre.”

Half of the six open seats are in Quebec — two formerly Liberal seats in Montreal, and one southwest of Montreal that was held by the Bloc Québécois.

The Conservatives haven’t yet nominated a candidate in any of them.

The St-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton byelection is the first that has to be called, since Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay quit the Bloc caucus in June ahead of a successful run provincially for the Parti Québécois.

The Liberals are running former provincial politician Chantal Soucy, who represented the Coalition Avenir Québec in the National Assembly for eight years before choosing not to run again in the election this fall. The Bloc has nominated Caroline Emond, the former director general of the International Dairy Federation.

Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie was the only riding the NDP won east of Manitoba in the last federal election, and it was opened in August when MP Alexandre Boulerice resigned ahead of his successful provincial run for Québec solidaire.

The Liberals are running human rights advocate Jean-Sébastien Vallée, while the NDP are fielding Pierre Céré, a Quebec activist who made a brief bid for the leadership of the separatist Parti Québécois in 2015.

In Laurier-Sainte-Marie, which former environment minister Steven Guilbeault vacated in the summer after a public disagreement with Carney over environment policy, the Liberals have yet to nominate anyone.

The Bloc is fielding Zumretay Arkin, the former vice-president of the World Uyghur Congress while the NDP has nominated epidemiologist Nima Machouf.

The sixth byelection is to be held in Scarborough North, which former Liberal Shaun Chen vacated in August citing ongoing medical issues related to a vehicle crash in 2025.

The Liberals are seeking to hold on to the seat with accountant James Li.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 30, 2026.

Catherine Morrison, The Canadian Press