Statistics and federal policy on crime have changed, but the politics remain the same

OTTAWA — New tough-on-crime laws and statistics showing falling crime rates aren’t likely to change how Canadians currently feel about crime or whether it’s used as a political wedge between parties, some national pollsters say.

David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, said it will take time for the statistics and new laws to resonate with Canadians.

“That’s because that perception lasts far longer than the reality of the situation. And so people need to feel safer before they actually believe it is,” he said.

He said hearing stories about carjackings, home invasions or the fatal shooting at a festival in Toronto earlier this summer “creates the perception that it’s bad today and it’s never been worse.”

In July, Statistics Canada said both the rates and severity of reported crime were down almost across the board in 2025.

StatCan said Canada’s crime severity index, which measures both the number of crimes compared to population and the relative severity of all police-reported crimes, dropped five per cent last year for the second annual decline in a row.

The conventional crime rate, which tracks the volume of crimes regardless of their severity, was down two per cent, and the homicide rate was at its lowest level since 2014.

Those numbers don’t reflect any impact from three sweeping crime bills passed by the federal Liberals last spring.

The bills introduced new offences to the Criminal Code, including around hate crimes, coercive control, and sexual deepfakes, made it more difficult to get bail for a variety of crimes and restored mandatory minimum prison penalties.

Despite the laws, and the numbers, the Conservative Party’s message on crime remains the same: the Liberals, they say, “have unleashed chaos and disorder onto our once-safe streets.”

Conservative justice critic Arpan Khanna cited statistics going back to when the Liberals were elected in 2015 under former prime minister Justin Trudeau.

“Violent crime is up actually 57 per cent, shootings are up, firearm-related offences are up 100 per cent, extortion is up 300 per cent,” he said.

“It is a Liberal-caused crisis that they started with their soft-on-crime laws.”

Khanna said it’s the long-term trend that matters, and pointed to numbers released by some police forces, such as Peel police reporting a doubling of shootings in 2026.

“What I’m hearing from the ground, from talking to people, everyday Canadians, law enforcement, Crown prosecutors, mayors, premiers, is that there’s still this underlying fear in their communities,” Khanna said.

He said the three Liberal laws are a Band-Aid solution that doesn’t go far enough. “Will it help a little bit? Probably. But is it going to fix the whole crisis? No.”

After those StatCan numbers were released in July, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said on social media that violent crime was up 57 per cent since 2015, and had risen again under Carney.

The StatCan numbers show there were 601,139 violent incidents in 2025, compared to 597,405 in 2024, which it said amounted to a zero per cent increase in the violent crime rate.

Justice Minister Sean Fraser responded, pointing to decreases in the crime severity index and writing: “Working with law enforcement and provincial partners is more effective than trying to scare people for votes.”

Fraser’s office pointed to that tweet when asked for comment on this story

“I’ll reiterate that the stats are certainly encouraging news, and I would say it reflects the hard work of law enforcement across the country who are working every day to keep our communities safe,” said Fraser’s spokesperson Jeremy Bellefeuille.

Pollsters say people base their perceptions of crime on their own experiences and what they see in their communities — not the latest statistics.

Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice-president for Central Canada, said there is “often a real disconnect in terms of what statistics will tell you and what people will tell you in terms how they’re feeling.”

For people who live in big cities, visible issues like homelessness and addiction in downtown areas contribute to their perception.

Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, said crime ranks about the same in importance as climate change and immigration, below the economy but above income inequality.

Angus Reid’s polling shows crime has grown as a top issue since 2015.

Kurl said issues like the trade agreement and relationship with the United States and cost of living and housing continue to “take up the most real estate in Canadians’ brains.”

But Kurl said the caveat is that is “very dependent on where people live and whether people feel safe in their neighbourhoods.”

Coletto said there is a “clear regional dynamic,” where crime ranks higher as a top issue in Ontario and B.C. and lower in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

Focusing on crime has been a mainstay for the Conservative Party.

“Conservatives traditionally have always been a party that probably placed more emphasis on law and order and public safety issues,” Enns said. “That tends to be a fairly consistent, important part of their platform.”

Coletto said polling shows people who are concerned about crime also believe the Conservatives are the party best able to handle it.

“It is one of the issues that they do significantly better than on the Liberals,” he said.

He predicted the Conservatives will keep raising crime as an issue, even if the public’s attention has been elsewhere in recent months.

“I just don’t think there is as much of an audience today for it as it may have been a year or two ago, or even in the last eight months,” Coletto said.

The Liberals were under pressure to do something on crime not only from the Conservatives but also provincial premiers and municipalities, Enns noted.

Enns said he’s not sure the three new bills will have a long-term effect on the Liberal brand.

“And I don’t think the Liberal party would necessarily be overly vexed by that either,” he added.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 21, 2026.

Anja Karadeglija, The Canadian Press