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A rainy start to Father’s Day greeted much of Saskatchewan on Sunday, and Environment Canada says more unsettled weather is still on the way.
A band of showers that moved out of Alberta overnight stretched from Saskatoon through Regina and south to the international border by mid-morning Sunday, bringing widespread rainfall to much of the southern half of the province.
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Brad Vrolijk, a lead forecaster with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said the system performed largely as expected after forecasters warned Saturday that multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms would move through Saskatchewan over several days.
“As we mentioned yesterday, we did see that band of showers progress eastward out of Alberta yesterday evening and slowly track its way across southern Saskatchewan through the night,” Vrolijk said.
Rainfall amounts varied across the province, but many communities received between 10 and 15 millimetres but some communities saw even more precipitation.
According to Environment Canada data, Rosetown received 19.3 millimetres of rain in the previous 24 hours, while Elbow recorded 17.5 millimetres. Moose Jaw received about 14 millimetres by mid-morning Sunday.
Regina had only recorded about four millimetres at the time of the interview, although Vrolijk noted the city was still in the middle of the rain band.
“You’re later to the party in Regina,” he said.
Other communities also picked up significant moisture. Maple Creek recorded 8.5 millimetres, Cypress Hills Interprovincial Park received 12 millimetres, Swift Current had 10 millimetres and Kindersley recorded 11 millimetres.
While the morning rain was expected to continue pushing east through the day, forecasters were already watching for the next round of weather.
As skies begin to clear farther west, Vrolijk said isolated and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon.
“By mid-afternoon we’ll probably see isolated or scattered thunderstorms pop up along the Trans-Canada Highway corridor west of Moose Jaw and south to the international border,” Vrolijk said.
Those storms are expected to slowly drift east before weakening later in the evening.
Environment Canada is not forecasting widespread severe weather Sunday, but Vrolijk said a stronger storm cannot be completely ruled out.
“We’re not expecting any widespread severe risk with these or anything, but can’t really quite rule out the risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm this afternoon,” he said.
The most likely area for stronger storms Sunday will be in southwestern Saskatchewan.
“The most likely area to see thunderstorms, and maybe a severe thunderstorm, would be further southwest of Regina, down towards Assiniboia — in that area,” Vrolijk said.
The weather pattern is expected to remain active overnight and into Monday.
Another band of showers is forecast to move along the international border Sunday night, bringing more precipitation to areas including the Cypress Hills and Shaunavon region.
Monday could bring a broader thunderstorm threat across southern Saskatchewan.
“There’ll be a better chance for more widespread thunderstorm development in the afternoon, kind of stretching all the way from Swift Current east to Regina,” Vrolijk said.
He added that forecasters are monitoring the possibility of scattered severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon.
“I think there will probably be a risk of scattered severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon on the lower end, not like a major severe weather outbreak, but there could be some severe weather tomorrow afternoon with the convective activity,” he said.
Farther north, conditions are expected to be less active.
Saskatoon had received about two millimetres of rain by Sunday morning. While more showers remain possible, Vrolijk said the city is unlikely to see the same level of rainfall or thunderstorm activity expected farther south.
“They’re definitely not as notable an event as it is to their west and south,” he said.
For many Saskatchewan families, that means Father’s Day may begin with umbrellas and rain jackets, but conditions could improve later in the day as the morning rain gradually moves east.
“At least the morning,” Vrolijk said. “I think as this weekend heads east, it’ll be an alright afternoon for quite a few places.”
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