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Southern Saskatchewan should be in for a wet few days, with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) tracking a slow-moving system expected to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into Monday.
Brad Vrolijk, a lead forecaster with ECCC, said the main weather-maker is currently sitting to the west and moving into southern Alberta from B.C.
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“That system is going to continue to slowly track east over the next 48 to 72 hours and bring multiple waves of precipitation with it as it goes,” Vrolijk said.
For Southern Saskatchewan, especially the area along the Trans-Canada Highway corridor and south of it, Vrolijk said the weather will likely come in waves rather than one long stretch of rain.
“The first weather we’re expecting to move in will move in overnight tonight,” he said. “We’ll probably see a line of thunderstorms and showers move out of southern Saskatchewan through the first half of the night, and then reach its way towards Moose Jaw, Regina by early Sunday morning.”
Vrolijk said that the first round is expected to weaken as it moves east, but it will not be the end of unsettled weather.
“As that continues to shift off into the southeast corner of the province later Sunday, we’ll see a new wave of showers and thunderstorms develop further west, kind of towards Swift Current, down towards Assiniboia, Moose Jaw,” he said
That second wave is expected to push east later Sunday evening and into the night, with more showers possible Monday.
“It’s going to be more kind of waves where you get some showers and thunderstorms, it’ll be dry for a while, then more showers and thunderstorms and dry for a while,” Vrolijk said. “It’ll just be kind of repetitive.”
Rainfall totals will vary depending on where thunderstorms develop, but Vrolijk said some areas could see heavier amounts.
“There’s definitely the potential for maybe 25 to 50 millimetres in some spots, particularly probably kind of Outlook to Moose Jaw, maybe further south towards Estevan and Regina, in that corridor,” he said.
According to Vrolijk, it’s still too early to say exactly which communities will see the highest rainfall totals.
“It’s really difficult to say at this point where we might get the most or the least,” he said. “It really depends exactly what showers and thunderstorms develop.”
Broadly, he said a large swath of the province could see between 10 and 30 millimetres.
He said locally higher amounts are possible where thunderstorms develop.
While rain is expected to be the main concern, Vrolijk said people should still keep an eye on the forecast.
“At the moment, we aren’t expecting any widespread organized severe thunderstorm risk,” he said. “That’s not to say that an isolated severe thunderstorm is impossible.”
If stronger storms do develop, Vrolijk said rain and hail would likely be the biggest threats.
ECCC is encouraging people to monitor the forecast and watch for any alerts.
“You can find our thunderstorm outlooks online, which we issue daily for today, tonight and tomorrow period,” Vrolijk said. Those are a great resource to see where the worst thunderstorms are expected for the day.”
He said people should also keep checking for any waiter alerts that may be issued as the system moves on.
“Keep updated for any alerts that we might issue, and that’ll help you know where the worst weather is going to be,” he said.
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