Democratic primary for Nebraska’s ‘blue dot’ US House seat is too early to call

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — The Democratic primary for a key U.S. House seat in Nebraska was too early to call late Tuesday, as two candidates were separated by a narrow margin in a contest that could decide the fate of the state’s “blue dot” — a small, but significant factor in presidential politics.

Political activist Denise Powell had a lead of about 2 percentage points over state Sen. John Cavanaugh, out of more than 51,000 votes counted.

Douglas County, which accounts for more than 90% of the district, has a history of counting a significant number of votes after election day, and county officials were unable to provide an estimate of the number of outstanding ballots late Tuesday. The county expects to provide additional information about outstanding ballots on Wednesday afternoon.

The winner of the Democratic primary will face Republican Brinkner Harding, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump, in what will be one of the Democrats’ top targets in the November general election. The seat has been held for much of the last decade by U.S. Rep. Don Bacon, a Republican who is retiring.

The district draws national attention because Nebraska is one of just two states that splits its electoral votes in presidential elections. The 2nd District has gone to Democratic presidential candidates three out of five times since 2008 — a “blue dot” in an otherwise sea of red.

Some Democrats contended that the very survival of the “blue dot,” a point of intense local pride, was at stake on Tuesday.

Some argued that a Cavanaugh primary victory would jeopardize the district’s special status because he’d be leaving his valuable state legislative seat, making it easier for Republicans in the Nebraska Legislature to change the law that allows the state to split its electoral votes.

The issue has defined the primary contest, where the leading candidates have much in common ideologically, perhaps more than any other.

Outside an Omaha polling place, Beth Pepitone said she voted for Powell because she wanted someone who would stand up to Trump.

“I just think we’re going in the wrong direction and it’s very sad,” said Pepitone. “I want to preserve the ‘blue dot.’”

Clarity for key Senate contest

A key Senate contest also got clarity on Tuesday night, as U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts easily won the GOP primary in his bid to seek his first full term. Ricketts was appointed to replace former Sen. Ben Sasse in 2023 and then won a 2024 special election.

Ricketts’ real test will come in the November general election against independent candidate Dan Osborn, an industrial mechanic and military veteran who came within 7 points of defeating Republican U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer in her 2024 reelection bid.

Democrats are not expected to promote their own competitor in the general election, even after Cindy Burbank won the party’s primary. Burbank has said she plans to drop out of the race and rally behind Osborn as part of her party’s broader strategy to defeat Ricketts this fall. On her website, Burbank says Osborn “deserves a fair shot against Ricketts.”

The Nebraska Democratic Party said it would support the independent Osborn for the general election as well.

Meanwhile, in the race for governor, incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Pillen won his party’s primary, while former state Sen. Lynne Walz won the Democratic nomination.

Opponents say the ‘blue dot’ is in danger

In the 2nd District, the Democratic argument against Cavanaugh has little to do with his politics or policies.

His opponents and groups backing them have flooded mailboxes, airwaves and social media warning that if he wins the congressional primary, Nebraska’s Republican governor would appoint a conservative Republican to replace him in the Legislature.

That move, they say, could give state Republicans enough votes to enact a conservative wish list that includes stricter limitations on abortion and transgender rights.

It could also empower Republicans to enact midcycle redistricting or change the state’s unusual system of splitting presidential electoral votes, some Democrats argue. Republicans failed in 2024 to pass a bill that would have made Nebraska the 49th state to award its Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis.

“Our Blue Dot. We fought hard for it. But if John Cavanaugh goes to Congress, it could all fall down,” cautions one TV ad by the super PAC New Democrat Majority.

EMILY’s List, a national group that supports women running for office, has put its reach and money behind Powell, calling Cavanaugh’s candidacy “a gift to MAGA Republicans.”

Republican groups also targeted Cavanaugh

Republican groups have sent out mailers and social media posts claiming Cavanaugh “is in agreement with President Donald Trump” and showing a photo of Cavanaugh overlaid on a photo of the president, making it appear as if the two are standing together.

“Clearly, the Republicans know that I’m the strongest general election candidate,” Cavanaugh said. “And so they’re trying to hurt me.”

The attacks on Cavanaugh show Democrats and Republicans believe he has the best chance of winning the general election, said Paul Landow, a former Nebraska Democratic Party executive director.

He called the “blue dot” attacks disingenuous, noting Republicans already have a filibuster-proof majority in the Legislature but have still failed to pass key elements of their agenda because it is unpopular even among GOP lawmakers. The argument that a Cavanaugh win could weaken the state’s “blue dot” also assumes Democrats won’t pick up additional legislative seats this year, he said.

“There’s so many things that have to fall into place for this alleged danger to the ‘blue dot,’” Landow said. “It’s just wild speculation.”

A contentious primary

While all the Democratic contenders cite affordability and opposition to Trump administration policies — from immigration and healthcare to military actions — the top contenders began attacking one another more aggressively in the days leading up to the primary.

Powell co-founded Women Who Run Nebraska, a political action committee that supports progressive female candidates, and she has a decade of Democratic political activism. She’s never held office but said her deep connections have helped her with independents and third-party voters who make up nearly 30% of the district’s electorate.

“My name recognition has increased dramatically,” Powell said, adding that “people are really connecting with my message.”

The winner of Tuesday’s primary will head to a highly competitive general election.

Trump won the district in 2016, and the retiring Bacon, who has clashed with Trump, has held the House seat for five terms.

At an Omaha polling place, independent Hayden Kephart said her biggest concern is inflation.

“Obviously the price of everything has really gone up,” she said. “And the price of oil can be a factor in everyday life and travel plans.”

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Peoples reported from New York. Associated Press writer Josh Funk in Omaha, Nebraska, contributed to this report.

Margery A. Beck And Steve Peoples, The Associated Press