Quebec projects $8.6B deficit in budget that focuses on funding core services

QUÉBEC — Quebec’s new budget has few flashy, big-ticket items for voters ahead of the fall election, reflecting a sober reality of sluggish GDP growth and persistent economic uncertainty, primarily from south of the border.

Finance Minister Eric Girard had warned Quebecers not to expect major new spending for the 2026-27 fiscal year, and on Wednesday he kept his word. Gone are Girard’s previous budgets with tax cuts and government cheques of hundreds of dollars to Quebec households.

Asked what Wednesday’s budget had in store for the average Quebecer, the finance minister responded bluntly: “Stability, predictability, adequate funding for health care, education.”

Quebec’s financial position left him little room to introduce any major spending for the governing Coalition Avenir Québec to campaign on ahead of the October election. GDP growth in 2025 was 0.8 per cent and Quebec recorded a major drop in international exports last year.

As a result, the $170.8-billion budget has a deficit of $8.6 billion — or 1.3 per cent of GDP — a number that includes a $2-billion contingency reserve and a $2.3-billion legally required payment into a fund to repay the province’s debt.

But Girard managed to find room in his budget for a special $250-million fund that could be used at the discretion of the candidate who wins the CAQ leadership race on April 12, and replaces Premier François Legault.

Quebec’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2026 — but that assumes U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods are stable over the short term. If the Trump administration decides to exit the North American free-trade agreement, which is up for review in July, Girard’s budget predicts a contraction of Quebec’s GDP in 2026 of 0.2 per cent.

He said the trade dispute with the United States is making it more difficult for Quebec to attract investments. He also estimated that the uncertainty around the North American free-trade deal has kept the province’s GDP “depressed” by about 1.5 percentage points.

In the first 11 months of 2025, the value of Quebec’s exports to the United States fell by $6.5 billion, close to eight per cent. Non-U.S. international exports grew over that period by $2.9 billion, or close to 10 per cent. However, it was not enough to make up for the loss in access to the U.S. market.

Meanwhile, the government’s predictions for inflation — expected to be 2.3 per cent in 2026 — hinge on the United States and Israel’s war with Iran to last six weeks, which opposition parties say is unlikely.

The budget also projected to increase health-care spending by 4.1 per cent, rising to $68.7 billion, which is more than any other sector. Girard also earmarked $24.1 billion for education, a rise of 2.4 per cent, and $11.7 billion for higher education, a 3.7 per cent increase.

Quebec Liberal Leader Charles Milliard said the large deficit means it’s no time for Quebec to start popping the corks on champagne bottles.

The Opposition Liberals said the government is course-correcting as a result of its failures over the past eight years after “maxing its credit card.” Milliard’s party adds there is not enough money for small and medium-sized businesses.

“The government expects a drop in population, job growth and housing starts … we need the opposite: more people working, more jobs, more homes, more wealth,” Milliard said.

The 2025-26 fiscal year’s deficit — which was projected to be $12.4 billion in Girard’s economic update last November — was revised down to $9.9 billion. This includes the required payment into the debt fund.

Girard reiterated the government’s commitment to a balanced budget by 2029-30, despite the auditor general calling that plan unrealistic in a report published last fall.

The budget includes about $480 million to “accelerate Quebec’s economic transformation,” with investments in the critical and strategic mineral sector, and money to promote cultural content. The government says it wants to create incentives for private investment in industries like defence, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, mining and forestry.

About $742 million is earmarked for communities, including for the creation of 5,000 new subsidized daycare spaces, and for programs for homelessness, mental health and domestic violence. As well, the budget has an extra $5 billion over six years for infrastructure, increasing the capital plan for the 2026-36 period to $167 billion.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 18, 2026.

Erika Morris, The Canadian Press