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EDMONTON — A former Alberta cabinet minister says Premier Danielle Smith won’t survive fallout from the separation referendum, while an independence organizer says she still has his support for now.
Legislature member Peter Guthrie, who was removed from Smith’s United Conservative Party caucus after criticizing the government over a health-care procurement scandal, now leads the upstart Progressive Tory Party of Alberta.
He said Monday’s referendum angered both federalists and separatists, leaving Smith with more enemies than supporters
“Eventually, what happens is your enemies outweigh your supporters, and I don’t think that the UCP can come back from that,” Guthrie said Wednesday.
“I don’t think Danielle Smith can come back from that, because she’s at the centre of it.”
About 75 per cent of voters cast ballots to keep Alberta in Canada and not to have a second, binding referendum on leaving the country. The next day, Smith said the province wouldn’t have a binding separation referendum while she’s premier.
Smith’s office said Guthrie is out of touch with Albertans and peddling misinformation.
In a video released on social media Wednesday, the premier said anyone running for or speaking for her UCP must accept its pro-Canada stance.
She said separatists intent on turning the party into a vehicle for independence should join a different party, warning internal division could cost the UCP next year’s election.
“Members can say and believe whatever they wish. But as a party, we cannot permit the next year to be one of internal division and endless debates about separation when Albertans have spoken so clearly against it,” she said.
“Together, we are winning, and we will keep winning so long as we remain united.”
Guthrie said the premier courted those in the independence movement in her successful bid to become party leader in 2022, then to support her in the 2023 provincial election, and then to back her in her party leadership review in 2024.
“They are the ones that have volunteered for her, travelled all across this province to help her,” he said.
The party’s annual general meeting is scheduled next month in Calgary, and a small number of constituency associations have pushed for a leadership review.
Mitch Sylvestre, a prominent separatist leader and Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul UCP constituency association president, has said he’s not leaving the party.
Outspoken separatist leader Jeff Rath has also called Smith’s referendum “phoney.”
Others, including grassroots members and cabinet ministers, stand by Smith.
The local board in the Calgary-West constituency, represented by cabinet minister Mike Ellis, recently voted to reaffirm their strong support for Smith.
Cory Morgan, an online political commentator and organizer behind the Pathway to Independence separatist group, said Smith still has his support.
And he said she doesn’t seem to be in any immediate danger of being overthrown by the UCP.
“She’s got challenges to deal with in the party, but I don’t think she is at risk of a full revolt that’s going to knock her out of power,” he said Thursday.
Even though he remains committed to Alberta independence, Morgan said most members, including those who voted for a binding separation vote, recognize now isn’t the time to push the issue.
“They’re not happy with Smith, but they realize that they could do more damage than good trying to rip her out at this point.”
Morgan added that not everyone who supported Smith in her leadership bid were gunning for independence.
The next election is set for on Oct. 18, 2027, less than a year away.
“I’m telling them to keep their powder dry for a year,” Morgan said of some UCP members who might feel disgruntled.
Ruling conservative parties in Alberta have a history of sidelining their leaders with middling performance reviews.
In 2022, former premier Jason Kenney stepped down after members gave him 51 per cent approval, driven by dissatisfaction over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The lone member of Smith’s caucus to publicly advocate for a binding referendum on separation was backbencher Jason Stephan. As polls closed Monday, he announced he would not run again.
“We’re not really seeing, aside from perhaps Jason Stephan, who’s now moving on, real serious rumbling in the caucus,” Morgan said.
Last month, Smith’s office blamed vote splitting among conservatives and Guthrie’s Progressive Tories for the UCP’s byelection loss.
Naheed Nenshi’s Opposition NDP candidate won the longtime conservative stronghold of Calgary-Shaw, as Guthrie fielded a candidate under his party’s banner for the first time.
In a statement Thursday, Ryan Fournier, the premier’s press secretary, reiterated her video announcement, and said the government and the UCP will honour the referendum results.
“The premier has been clear that herself, our party, caucus and government support a strong Alberta within a united Canada. Further, the premier has held this position ever since she first got involved in politics,” Fournier said.
“MLA Pete Guthrie is out of touch with Albertans and his constituents. Along with peddling misinformation, he consistently votes and sides with the socialist NDP in the legislature.”
Guthrie voted with the NDP in calling for a public inquiry into health-care spending.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2026.
Lisa Johnson, The Canadian Press
