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Charles Smith will be closely watching voter turnout during Monday’s Alberta referendum.
The University of Saskatchewan’s St. Thomas More College political studies professor believes the number of people in favour of holding a second, binding vote on leaving Confederation will be well below 50 per cent.
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“There’s just no evidence that Albertans are clamouring for this. I think this is going to be a massive failure for the separatist movement, and the question is whether or not this sends a message, or whether it just falls on its face,” he said.
Smith wonders, though, how many Albertans will show up at the polls.
“If turnout is high — so if turnout is over 70 per cent — my prediction is that the ‘remain’ number is going to be high, up to 60 to 70 per cent.
“If turnout is low, I think we could see those numbers fluctuate. I don’t see a world where the separatist vote to have a vote on leaving — I don’t see any world where they get over 50 per cent,” he added.
University of Saskatchewan’s St. Thomas More College political studies professor Charles Smith. (Facebook)
But the fact that a referendum of this kind, with a total of 10 questions, is even underway is “mind-boggling” to Smith.
“I’m concerned about all of them [the questions] for different reasons. I think the first four are a real dog whistle to a far-right, sort of anti-immigration politics that we’re seeing in the rest of the democratic world and in Europe and in the United States,” he said.
Smith called the questions that ask voters whether they support the Alberta government taking control of immigration to reduce immigration numbers and requiring a minimum 12-month residency period for immigrants before they qualify for social programs “mean-spirited.”
“The notion [is] that somehow immigrants aren’t paying their way or aren’t helping in society … and the irony is that the Alberta government itself was clamouring for skilled workers and immigrants less than three years ago,” he countered.
Smith is equally puzzled by questions asking voters whether they support the Alberta government working with other provinces to amend federal rules around the appointment of Court of King’s Bench justices and abolish the Senate.
“So, you’re going to ask the people of Alberta — who’ve repeatedly said they don’t like the federal Senate — to talk about the federal Senate and there’s nothing the Alberta government can do about it unilaterally anyway,” Smith said.
On judicial appointments, Smith said the federal government chooses justices for federal courts, while provinces choose judges for provincial courts.
He said that if Alberta is unhappy about most of the issues covered in the referendum, there’s nothing stopping Premier Danielle Smith from discussing them with Prime Minister Mark Carney or other provinces without sending people to the polls.
According to Elections Alberta, polls are open on Oct. 19 from 9 a.m. until 8 p.m., and all ballots will be counted by hand.
The answers to Question 10, which asks whether Alberta should remain a province or whether the provincial government should begin the legal process of holding a binding provincial referendum on whether to remain part of Canada, will be counted first at each voting station and location.
The results of that question are expected to be announced Oct. 20.
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