Fact File: Trump makes misleading claims about Canada-U.S. trade, economy

As the Canadian government hits back at the United States over new tariffs imposed last week, the countries’ economic relationship is in the spotlight. U.S. President Donald Trump started his week with a series of Truth Social posts taking aim at Canada’s economy and trade policies. But many of the posts contain inaccuracies about Canadian unemployment, tariffs and trade deficits. Here is a look at some of those claims.

THE CLAIM

In one of the posts shared on Trump’s Truth Social account on Monday, he claims that Canada conducts 95 per cent of its business with the U.S. and that the country is dependent on the U.S. market.

“Canada will be treated like a State no longer! On Trade, and in other ways, also, they are among the worst Nations in the World to deal with. They feel entitled, and yet, WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US,” he says.

THE FACTS

While the majority of Canada’s exports do go to the United States, the figure is nowhere near 95 per cent. Recent data from Statistics Canada put the percentage of merchandise exports to United States at 71.7 per cent in 2025, down from 75.9 per cent in 2024. The downward trend appears to be continuing in 2026, with Scotiabank reporting a drop to 70 per cent through June.

A White House news release Tuesday claiming Canada “could not survive” without the United States did not repeat the 95 per cent figure. It instead cited 2024 data to say “Canada sends roughly three-quarters of all its goods exports to America.”

At the same time, Canada recorded a drop in the proportion of imported goods that come from the United States. American goods represented 58.8 per cent of imports in 2025, down from 62.3 per cent a year earlier.

THE CLAIM

In another post Trump shared on his Truth Social account on Monday, he claims that Canada’s unemployment rate is currently at 10 per cent and is rapidly increasing.

“Their businesses are fleeing for the United States, and it’s all because of their failed policies, and inept leadership,” he says.

THE FACTS

Employment data from Statistics Canada’s July 2026 Labour Force Survey provides a different take on Canada’s labour market.

The survey shows that for July, Canada’s unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 6.4 per cent, the lowest rate since July 2024. The Canadian economy added 75,000 new jobs.

THE CLAIM

In separate Truth Social posts on Monday and Tuesday, Trump said Canada historically charged 400 per cent tariffs on American farmers, causing the U.S. to lose US$60 billion per year over the past 10 years due to a trade deficit between the two countries.

“Canada has been ‘Ripping Off’ the U.S.A. for decades,” Trump wrote.

THE FACTS

Trump has often complained about Canadian tariffs on U.S. dairy products, calling them unfair for farmers.

The high tariffs he refers to were negotiated as part of trade agreements signed by both countries.

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or CUSMA, is currently being renegotiated, but remains active.

Under the agreement, tariffs were virtually eliminated on the majority of products that cross the border.

There are a few exceptions where U.S. exports face high tariffs if they exceed an agreed upon limit. These tariff rate quotas limit how much of a product can be imported at a lower tariff rate. Canada uses supply management to protect certain agricultural industries including poultry and dairy, and those products have high tariffs when they exceed the tariff rate quota.

For example, Canada places a tariff of 7.5 per cent on many milk and cream products if they do not exceed the agreed limit.

If an importer wants to go over the limit, it faces a tariff of between 241 and nearly 300 per cent. However, there is no flat rate of 400 per cent for any product on Canada’s tariff list.

The International Dairy Foods Association, which represents the U.S. dairy industry, said it has never exceeded the CUSMA quotas due to Canada’s “protectionist measures.” CUSMA’s predecessor, the North American Free Trade Agreement, included similar tariff rates.

“Tariffs were eliminated progressively and all duties and quantitative restrictions, with the exception of those on a limited number of agricultural products traded with Canada, were eliminated by 2008,” the office of the United States Trade Representative wrote in an archived overview of that agreement.

U.S. figures show the deficit in the trade of goods — the difference in value between imports from and exports to Canada — was about US$68 billion in 2024 and US$55 billion in 2025.

But when a U.S. trade surplus in the exchange of services is factored into the equation, the deficit shrinks to $39 billion in 2024 and $27 billion in 2025.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 25, 2026.

Marissa Birnie and Timon Johnson, The Canadian Press