American Liquor and why its relationship with Canadians is on the rocks.

American liquor may be taking a backseat here in Canada, whether it’s on the shelves or not.

Warren Kaeding, the minister responsible for SLGA, said American alcohol sales are down by 40 per cent across Saskatchewan, while sales of locally produced products have risen by 5 per cent.

These statistics come as the Canadian government considers ending the ban on American alcohol sales in exchange for tariff relief amid a new 50 per cent levy on Canadian imports expected to come into effect Aug. 19.

Bruce Winder is a retail analyst who recently joined the Evan Bray Show to discuss American alcohol and what its future might look like in Canada.

Read more: 

• American alcohol sales shrinking in Saskatchewan as customers choose local booze
• Quebec premier open to allowing U.S. wines on store shelves, with conditions
• Nine premiers agree to direct-to-consumer alcohol sales from out-of-province

Listen to the full interview, or read the transcript below:

The following questions and answers have been edited for length and clarity.

Evan Bray: This is a unique conversation for us in Saskatchewan because we have put U.S. booze back on the shelves. Anecdotally, I’m hearing it’s not selling the way it once did. What do you think it would mean for Canadian retailers and consumers in general if, sweeping across the nation, American booze was back?

Bruce Winder: Just based on, I think, the sentiment out there, I don’t think it would sell a lot overall, you know, similar to what’s happening in Saskatchewan. I think Canadians feel angry about where we are with the U.S. from a trade dispute perspective, and they feel that until that’s cleared up, they probably wouldn’t vote with their wallet for that kind of product right now.

It’s one of two things, potentially: It’s that they still want to make their point, or they have found a Canadian alternative or another alternative that they like as much as, if not better than, their original U.S. brand, and so won’t go back to the original U.S. brand that they were buying in the first place. In the retail world, from an analytical standpoint, do you see a bit of both?

Winder: I think it’s probably a little bit of both. I’m sure there’s a lot of Canadians who absolutely love American alcohol. They’re used to it. They’ve bought it for decades, but they just can’t bring themselves to buy it right now based on the trade dispute. But you’re right. There are some folks who maybe said, “Hey, you know what? This has forced me to try some Canadian alcohol, other alcohol from other countries, and I quite like it, and I’m going to stick with it.” So it’s probably a little bit of both.

 I’ve heard anecdotally that in Saskatchewan, especially now in the summer, people from different parts of Canada travelling through will actually be the ones to purchase U.S. liquor because we have it on the shelves here. And back in their home province of Manitoba or Ontario, they can’t get it. Have you seen any of that across Canada?

Winder: I haven’t heard that, but you know what? That’s no doubt a trend I could see happening. I mean, certainly people probably still like the alcohol, like the taste, like the brands, and they’re being forced to not be able to even have the choice to buy it in some of the other provinces, like Ontario, Manitoba, like you mentioned. And yeah, why not? If you’re doing a road trip or you’re travelling into Saskatchewan, why not pick it up if you want it? Again, not everyone would do that because of the sentiment with the U.S., but folks who don’t really mind that, I think, would certainly be open to that.

I wonder if you could give us some understanding of right now, in much of Canada, you can’t buy U.S. alcohol, but you can buy U.S. products at a grocery store. Have we seen that same sort of discerning decision-making by Canadians at the grocery store that we’re suspecting might happen at the liquor store?

Winder: Yeah, we actually are. A while ago, I was listening to an earnings call from Loblaws. They mentioned that Canadian products were selling much better than U.S. products. There was a definite trend. So that’s probably a good barometer for the grocery store.

Does it help Canada if the booze goes back on the shelves? Which, of course, would be a concession. Donald Trump is asking for it, so if the Canadian government makes the decision to urge the provinces to put it back on the shelves, yet Canadians don’t buy it, will that be seen by the U.S. as a favourable move by Canada, or is it still part of this big trade irritant that Donald Trump is pointing to?

Winder: I think it would show a good-faith move by the Carney government to put it back on the shelf, which would please the administration. I mean, having said that, though, if no one buys it, or not many people buy it, the manufacturers in the U.S. of alcohol will still be knocking on Mr. Trump’s door, saying, “Hey, come on!” But, you know, there’s only so much the government can control. They can’t force people to buy things.