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Voters in a Prince Edward Island district southwest of Charlottetown headed to the polls on Monday to elect a new representative in what one analyst calls a defining political moment ahead of next year’s election.
The provincial byelection in Cornwall-Meadowbank was called after Progressive Conservative MLA Mark McLane died in March.
Elections PEI reports that 1,629 people cast ballots in three advance voting days over the last two weeks. The elections agency says that represents 35 per cent of the 4,695 registered electors in District 16.
The Tory majority in the legislature is not at risk with the byelection, as the party holds over 80 per cent of the seats.
But Don Desserud, political science chair at the University of Prince Edward Island, said the byelection will be a “defining moment” for whichever party wins as they look forward to the next election that must take place by October 2027.
“Each of them has a different stake, but each one has a very high stake,” he said.
A victory for Green candidate Tayte Willows would mean the party would be tied with the Official Opposition Liberals at four seats and signal a political comeback for the next general election, he said.
Narrative Research polls in March and June found that at least 40 per cent of those polled across the Island would vote for the Greens in a general election. Both polls had sample sizes of less than 180 respondents using an online panel.
The Liberal candidate in the byelection is party leader Robert Mitchell, who narrowly lost out to a Progressive Conservative candidate in a byelection last December.
Desserud said anything but a strong showing, even if it’s not a victory, could open the door to challenges to his party leadership.
A win for the governing Progressive Conservatives would help boost the party ahead of the next province-wide vote and quiet any doubts about Premier Rob Lantz’s leadership, Desserud said.
Paul Alan, election operations manager at Elections PEI, said he hoped to release advance voting results when polls close at 7 p.m.
He said election day ballots will be counted starting at 7:30 p.m. and, in the past, results have been posted an hour later.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 13, 2026.
— By Eli Ridder in Fredericton.
Eli Ridder, The Canadian Press
