Spring runoff outlook mixed across Saskatchewan: Water Security Agency

Spring runoff across Saskatchewan is shaping up to be uneven this year, with dry conditions lingering in the southwest, while a stronger mountain snowpack is offering some hope for river levels elsewhere in the province.

A new report from the Water Security Agency indicated most of the province is expected to see near-normal runoff this spring, but conditions varied widely.

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“We’re really seeing a difference across our province,” said Shawn Jaques, president and CEO of the Water Security Agency.

“The southwest part of Saskatchewan is going to see much below-normal runoff. Most of the province is going to be near normal, and then there’s a small pocket around Yorkton that’s likely to see above-normal runoff this spring.”

The below-normal outlook in the southwest stems from a familiar issue: a lack of moisture.

“There just wasn’t much precipitation in that part of the province,” Jaques said. “They did have some snow over the winter, but it did melt with some of those warm spells that we had.”

While a recent snowfall is bringing some additional relief, Jacques said it likely won’t significantly change the broader runoff forecast. However, it’s still welcome in an area that has struggled with dry conditions in recent years.

Elsewhere, conditions appear more stable, with most of Saskatchewan expected to fall within normal spring melt ranges. In eastern areas near Yorkton, slightly higher runoff is expected, though the agency said the risk of flooding remained low.

“As of right now, we’re not anticipating any flooding occurring on the eastern side of the province,” Jaques said. “It really does depends how quickly it melts, but we’re not expecting anything significant at this time.”

One of the more promising developments came from outside Saskatchewan. The snowpack in the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains, a key source of water for the province, was reported to be well above normal this year.

“What that means is we’re anticipating an increased flow in the South Saskatchewan River,” Jaques explained, noting that the added flow will also increase water levels in Lake Diefenbaker.

That could have downstream impacts on communities like Saskatoon, where low water levels and silt buildup have been ongoing concerns.

“It really does depends how much water comes out of the mountains,” Jaques said. “If there’s spring rain along with that melt, it can increase flows, which would have an impact on any silt buildup.”

The Water Security Agency said it is still too early to determine whether additional water releases from Lake Diefenbaker would be needed this year, noting that decisions will depend on how much water flows into the reservoir during the melt.

“It’s a little too early to say that for sure,” Jaques said, “but it is looking more promising, just because of that higher-than-normal snowpack in the mountains.”

Another runoff report is expected in early April as conditions continue to evolve.

–with files from 650 CKOM’s Lara Fominoff