Murray Wood: Who's hot... and who's not
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WINNIPEG — Images from space and artificial intelligence can help detect areas prone to extreme wildfires, researchers suggest, after satellite photos showed dry parts of Manitoba ahead of its devastating wildfire season.
Scientists from the University of Ottawa and Université Laval in Quebec used data collected by NASA, the European Space Agency and the Canadian Drought Monitor to review areas hit by fast-moving blazes in late spring.
They found various climate anomalies, including a lack of winter snowfall and spring rain, contributed to “cumulative vegetation stress,” or drier soil and vegetation.
“Canada is often seen as a land of endless water with countless lakes, rivers and wetlands, but … right now we face the situation of the drought. Drought is more than just no rain,” said project lead Hossein Bonakdari, an associate engineering professor at the University of Ottawa.
In early May, severe wildfires broke out in various parts of Manitoba and spread rapidly due to hot, dry and windy conditions, leading to the province’s worst wildfire season in 30 years. Flames also claimed the lives of two people near Lac du Bonnet, northeast of Winnipeg.
The researchers used the data to track irregularities in snow coverage, precipitation, temperature and soil moisture.
“While each anomaly alone appeared moderate, the observed spatial and temporal overlap of moderate anomalies suggests a potential synergistic effect that significantly preconditioned the environment for ignition,” says the study published in the journal Earth.
Researchers have said wildfire seasons are expected to become worse each year. The intensity of fires this year is a “consequence” of drought conditions and the last few fire seasons, said Bonakdari.
His team says the study underscores the importance of integrating climate and biosphere anomalies into wildfire risk monitoring, in order to be better prepared for wildfire seasons accelerating under climate change.
They say using satellite imagery can help determine which areas are at risk of early-season fires.
“This is particularly important in a changing climate, where such compound conditions are expected to become more frequent, subtle and hazardous,” says the study.
A spokesperson for the Manitoba government said in an email that the province “already uses satellite data and drought monitoring when it prepares for each wildfire season.”
However, Canada doesn’t have its own satellite system to monitor active forest fires across the country, and instead relies on partners to access images from space.
That’s expected to change in 2029, when the federal government said it plans to launch seven satellites into orbit under the WildFireSat program. It’s to collect daily data on active forest fires, allowing officials to determine which are the most dangerous and predict their behaviour.
That information would help officials make better use of firefighters and equipment — and ultimately save lives, the president of the Canadian Space Agency said earlier this year.
Infrared sensors are to be installed on the satellites to produce thermal imaging, allowing officials to assess the intensity of fires and track their progress.
However, with Canada’s current wildfire season now the second-worst on record, Bonakdari said governments need to act now.
“The conditions are ready to again have a type of catastrophic event.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 12, 2025.
Brittany Hobson, The Canadian Press
