Vassy Kapelos Show: prairies oppose banning gas-powered vehciles

Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research, joined Tim Powers—filling in for Vassy Kapelos on her show—to discuss its recent study, revealing that a majority of Canadians are against banning the sale of gas-powered vehicles.

The Vassy Kapelos Show airs on Saturdays and replays on Sundays on 650CKOM and 980CJME.

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These questions and answers have been edited and condensed for clarity.

Tim Powers: What are Canadians thinking about gas-powered versus EV?

Nik Nanos: When we ask Canadians about this whole concept of a ban on gas powered cars as of 2035, Canadians are not hot on this idea. A pretty comfortable majority basically outright oppose, or somewhat oppose this particular transition. I think for a lot of Canadians are thinking how will this work, how much will it cost, and will we have the infrastructure and all that kind of stuff? And as a result, outright support is only at around 10 per cent of Canadians and another 21 per cent might support it, but the majority are not hot on this.

What I found equally fascinating in the data the regional breakdowns. If you look at where the federal Liberals get support, the public is not supportive of this mandate in those regions.

Nanos: When we look at the prairie provinces, they’re the one region that is the most likely to oppose or somewhat oppose. It jumps to basically three out of every four Canadians who live in the prairies.

It’s a little lower in Quebec, B.C. and Atlantic Canada. But the thing is, it’s a non starter. The thing is, for those that want to go to electric, they probably already have and I think because of concern about the rising cost of living, because of concern about all these things, the support for this ban is just not very strong.

I’m looking at the 70 per cent number in Ontario, particularly among 18 to 34 year olds, which was a key demographic for for the Liberals under Mr. Trudeau. Mr. Carney is seeing them express frustration here on EV mandates as well. What can you tell us about what you’re seeing across demographic lines?

Nanos: Young people are more likely to worry about things like paying for housing and paying for groceries. So, should we really be surprised that they would also be concerned about needing to change, and the cost that might be required to to go from gasoline to a full electric vehicle?

For a lot of these polls, people just think, what does this mean to me, and how much will it cost, and all that kind of stuff. I think in the long run, people probably want to see a different mix in terms of fewer gasoline vehicles. But I think when you start to talk about a ban, I think that’s where you really start to run into opposition. People should be able to have some sort of choice on that front.

There’s not a lot of difference between men and women when it comes to opposing, which again, is instructive, if you’re the government. If the government wanted to move away from this, they’re not going to find a big pushback, really, from any one particular group are they?

Nanos: No. The fact that men and women actually agree and have similar opinions on this is actually quite striking. I think what this shows is that I don’t think there would really be any opposition to people saying that we should have an aspirational objective to have fewer gas powered cars. It’s just when you get into removing choice and having a ban by 2035, or by any date, that you run into the slippery slope.

Maybe the best path forward for the government would be to show some flexibility on this front and to say, ‘hey, we still want fewer gas powered cars,’ but the ban is a completely different story.