Murray Wood: Who's hot and who's not
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TORONTO — Ontario is set to table its 2025-26 budget on May 15, with the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs likely to take centre stage.
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy announced the date on Thursday, saying it will be a plan that helps Ontario build more, build faster and achieve free trade across Canada.
“I think we’ve been pretty clear that it’s going to involve making sure that we shore up our economy, support our workers, (such as with) skills development funds as an area that we did in the past, and some big work to retrain and re-skill workers,” he said.
Ontario announced last month that businesses will see select provincial taxes deferred for six months, giving them about $9 billion worth of relief amid U.S. tariffs. The province also said the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board will issue a $2-billion rebate to safe employers.
Bethlenfalvy wouldn’t divulge if the budget will include targeted stimulus measures, but pointed to the previously announced $11-billion package and said he knows more needs to be done.
“It’s really important that the status quo is no longer acceptable, that we have to move on,” Bethlenfalvy said. “We have a new relationship with the U.S., and we’re going to do what it takes to have a strong economy.”
A report Wednesday from Ontario’s Financial Accountability Office said American tariffs will reduce demand for Ontario’s exports, slowing real GDP growth from the projected 1.7 per cent to 0.6 per cent, which “implies that a modest recession would occur in 2025.”
The FAO estimated that the tariffs would result in 68,100 fewer jobs in Ontario in 2025.
The effects on jobs and the GDP could vary by quite a bit, however, depending on whether existing tariffs, such as on steel, aluminum and automobiles, are reduced — or if additional ones, such as on copper or pharmaceuticals, are enacted. Canada’s retaliatory actions would also play a role.
Ontario’s fiscal plan is being tabled later than usual, in part due to the timing of a winter provincial election that secured a third majority mandate for Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives. It was held on Feb. 27.
The province’s last major fiscal update, the fall economic statement, had projected a relatively small $1.5-billion deficit for 2025-26 and eyed a balanced budget for 2026-27, but that came before the election of Trump and the implementation of tariffs.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles said she hopes the budget will address ways to prevent jobs from leaving Ontario, rather than focusing on re-training workers.
“What we want to see this government’s budget deliver is a budget that protects people in the first place, that builds opportunities and jobs for Ontarians and that strengthens our economy,” she said.
Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie said she hopes to see stimulus for industries hard hit by tariffs, and spending on health care, housing and tax cuts.
“There has to be balance,” she said. “It’s important to get the basics right, but it is also important to protect us from job loss.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 1, 2025.
Allison Jones, The Canadian Press
