NDP widens lead in tight B.C. election races, raising chance of forming government

The resumption of counting in last week’s nail-biting British Columbia election has seen the NDP widen its lead in two crucial races and move within 12 votes of the B.C. Conservatives in another.

No leads have changed among a handful of tight races, but tally updates provided by Elections BC increase the prospect of an NDP government.

The Conservatives had been hoping to flip NDP leads in Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre, the two closest races after the initial count ended last Sunday, but instead the ongoing tally of mail-in votes saw the NDP pull further ahead.

The NDP now leads in Juan de Fuca-Malahat by 106 votes, up from 23, while the party’s candidate leads in Surrey City Centre by 178 votes, up from 93.

Narrow Conservative leads in Surrey-Guildford and Kelowna Centre have dropped below 100.

The initial tally after the Oct. 19 election ended with neither David Eby’s NDP nor John Rustad’s B.C. Conservatives securing the 47 ridings needed to form a majority in the 93-seat legislature.

As of the Elections BC update at 4 p.m. on Saturday, standings remain unchanged with NDP elected or leading in 46 seats and the Conservatives in 45, while the Greens could hold the balance of power after winning two seats.

But those could change, with the Conservative lawyer Honveer Singh Randhawa’s lead in Surrey-Guildford over incumbent New Democrat Garry Begg dropping from 103 votes to just 12, with 226 ballots left to count when absentee and special votes are tallied provincewide on Monday.

Begg, a former RCMP officer, was first elected in 2017 and won the seat in 2020 with more than 60 per cent of the vote.

In Kelowna Centre, a Conservative lead of 148 votes has been pared back to 72, with 228 absentee and special votes to be counted.

If the NDP holds onto its current leads in the undecided races, it will be in a position to form a minority government if it secures Green support, but if it also wins a Conservative-led race such as Surrey-Guildford, it would have the narrowest of majorities.

To form a majority, the Conservatives must flip two ridings where the NDP leads, and while a minority Conservative government remains a possibility, the party’s ideological gap with the Greens is wide.

The NDP lead widened in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, while Conservative leads were cut in ridings including Courtney Comox, Maple Ridge East and Surrey Panorama.

There were more than 43,000 mail-in ballots to be counted in all 93 ridings across the province, in a process expected to be completed Sunday.

The elections authority will also conduct full recounts beginning on Sunday at 1 p.m. in the ridings of Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre because their margins after the initial count were under 100.

There will be a partial hand recount in Kelowna Centre due to a transcription error involving one tabulator used in the riding.

The final tally will then be completed on Monday with the counting of more than 22,000 absentee and special ballots, with results updated on Election BC’s website hourly that day.

But even after that, judicial recounts could occur in ridings where the margin is less than 1/500th of all votes counted.

The B.C. Conservative candidate in Juan de Fuca-Malahat, meanwhile, is facing criticism from within her own party over reported comments about Indigenous people.

On Friday, the Vancouver Sun published a recording in which a person it identifies as Marina Sapozhnikov calls First Nations people “savages.” The newspaper says the comments came during an election-night conversation with a journalism student.

Peter Milobar, the Conservative candidate in Kamloops Centre, said on social media platform X that he was “outraged” and “filled with sadness” over Sapozhnikov’s alleged comments, which he called “reprehensible.”

Sapozhnikov did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

Rustad issued a statement on Saturday saying he was “appalled and deeply saddened” by Sapozhnikov’s reported comments.

“Her words are not only inaccurate but profoundly harmful, painting a distorted picture of the communities I have worked alongside for many years,” the statement read.

Rustad said the remarks do not reflect his party’s values.

“We are taking this matter seriously,” he said. “As leader, I am fully committed to ensuring that our party leads with respect and understanding for all British Columbians.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 26, 2024.

Ashley Joannou, The Canadian Press