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The Water Security Agency is raising concerns about water supply issues in southwest Saskatchewan in 2023 if there isn’t a lot of snow this winter.
In the 2022 Conditions of Freeze-Up Report issued Monday, the WSA said larger water reservoirs have adequate supplies going into the winter, but surface water users in the southwest who rely on reservoirs or dugouts that were impacted by dry conditions in 2022 could see things get tougher next year.
“The dry conditions across most of the southwest and west-central portions of the province throughout the year has resulted in these areas showing a higher risk to water supply in 2023,” the report said. “In areas where the risk is high or extreme, even a normal snowpack would likely result in further water supply shortages in 2023.”
The WSA noted it doesn’t expect a above-normal spring runoff in any areas of the province in 2023. However, it reiterated that there’s “concern of surface water supply issues in the southwest if winter snowfall is below average.”
The report said most areas of the province were relatively dry going into the winter. It noted there was higher-than-normal precipitation in the spring and early summer, but the last half of summer and the early fall were so dry that soil moisture conditions at freeze-up were below normal.
“Conditions are driest in the Saskatoon and Swift Current areas where extreme agricultural drought conditions exist,” the report said.
Despite the concerns it raised about the southwest, the WSA said there could be significant snowfall in Saskatchewan this winter.
“Current long-range forecasts and climate indices suggest near to above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures through the winter months over much of the province,” the report said.
“La Niña conditions and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation are present and expected to continue through the winter. Historically, the combination of these two conditions has resulted in some of our largest snowpacks.”
The spring runoff forecast is to be released in early February.