‘Peeking through that blue wall:’ A look at Sask.’s battleground federal ridings

In 2019, Saskatchewan was a sea of blue in the federal election.

This time around, in 2021, trends continue to swing to the Conservative Party, but anything can happen come election night on Sept. 20.

Jim Farney is an associate professor at the School of Public Policy at the University of Regina. In an interview Monday, Farney pointed to three Saskatchewan ridings in particular that could be considered battleground ridings.

“If you look at provincial level polling numbers — which is all that we’ve got — I’d expect to see the Conservatives do pretty well, right across the province. But there’s some places where you can see some orange or see some red peeking through that blue wall,” he said.

The ridings Farney featured were in the Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River, Saskatoon West and Regina-Wascana ridings, all with a shot of switching from blue to red or orange.

Former NDP Athabasca MLA Buckley Belanger. (Lisa Schick/980 CJME)

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River

The first riding we’ll look at is in Saskatchewan’s north, the province’s largest riding in geographical size.

In 2019, the seat changed hands from the NDP’s Georgina Jolibois to the Conservatives’ Gary Vidal — the former mayor of Meadow Lake, which falls in the riding. Prior to that, the Conservatives’ Rob Clarke held the seat from 2009 to 2015.

Now, longtime Saskatchewan NDP MLA Buckley Belanger is running for the Liberal Party.

“We’ve got a really strong politician,” Farney said. “That riding is kind of an ‘any Sunday’ type of riding … There’s a bit of a tailwind for the Tories across the province, but it’s one where an individual figure can really make a difference.”

Belanger’s name does carry some weight going into this election. He was originally elected into the Legislative Assembly in Saskatchewan in 1995 as part of the Liberal Party. He then left the Liberals to join the New Democrats in 1998, being re-elected in every election since.

In August, Belanger announced his intention to step down and move to federal politics.

“People usually talk about the northern ridings as being a little bit different. They’re heavily Indigenous … They’ve got smaller populations spread out over a lot bigger area, and the parties matter less. So people tend to vote more for individuals than they do for party labels,” Farney explained.

Vidal, the incumbent, won the seat in 2019 by nearly 3,800 votes over Jolibois.

Vidal, Belanger, the Green Party’s Nasser Dean Chalifoux, the NDP’s Harmonie King, independent Stephen King and the PPC’s Dezirae Reddekopp round out those vying for the seat in 2021.

Brad Redekopp speaks after winning the Saskatoon West riding on Oct. 21, 2019.
(Keenan Sorokan/650 CKOM)

Saskatoon West

The next riding Farney pointed to doesn’t have the history of the aforementioned northern riding.

It was originally Moose Jaw and Saskatoon-Biggar, created in 1979. It was then dissolved to Kindersley-Lloydminster, Saskatoon-Clark’s Crossing and Saskatoon-Dundurn.

Then it was recreated again from Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and Saskatoon-Wanuskewin — with all of these changes happening in 1988.

Fast forward to the 2015 election. Sheri Benson of the New Democrats won the seat, but eventually had the seat turn to blue in 2019 with the Conservatives’ Brad Redekopp prevailing by just under 3,000 votes.

“You get a lot of people who go back and forth (from) NDP (to) Tory. (It) doesn’t make a lot of sense if you think of politics as just a left-right thing,” Farney explained.

“Who’s more likely to stand up for Saskatchewan against Ottawa? It kind of makes more sense. And I think that’s what’s going on.”

Farney said historically, NDP campaigns that can poll on the populous, the everyday sensibility, end up being successful.

“That’s usually the secret. Can you kind of be not so much a left-wing candidate or party (and) more of a populous one? That’s how things get off the ground here,” Farney continued.

This time around, Redekopp is looking to continue his work in Ottawa, yet Robert Doucette is looking to make gains for the NDP.

He served as president of the Métis Nation of Saskatchewan and the executive director of the Saskatoon Indian-Métis Friendship Centre.

Rounding out the candidates looking to take the seat are the Green Party’s Dave Greenfield, the Liberals’ Ruben Rajakumar and the PPC’s Kevin Boychuk — who was narrowly defeated by Darren Hill in the Ward 10 councillor race in the November civic election in Saskatoon.

An undated photo of former federal Minister of Public Safety Ralph Goodale. (Ralph Goodale/Facebook)

Regina-Wascana

This next riding isn’t too tough to portray its history. Larry Schnieder of the then-Progressive Conservative Party held the seat from 1988 to 1993.

Then the Liberal Party brought in Ralph Goodale. He stayed on as the MP from 1993 to 2019, lasting eight election cycles.

The Conservative Party’s Michael Kram took the seat in the 2019 election, defeating Goodale by nearly 7,200 votes.

“It’s an interesting riding because it’s got both rich and poor neighbourhoods in it. It’s got pretty diverse, more established neighbourhoods in it. It’s kind of all jumbled up together, and depending which way you look at the demographics, you can see strong points for the Liberals,” Farney explained.

He added that the NDP historically has not been a player in the riding, but without Goodale, it changes the political complexion.

“It’s an ‘I don’t know’ at this point,” Farney continued.

Kram is being challenged by the NDP’s Erin Hidlebaugh, the Green Party’s Victor Lau, the PPC’s Mario Milanovski and the Liberals’ Sean McEachern.

McEachern worked as the special assistant to Goodale, along with time spent as the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association’s director of policy and communications.