Wastewater study shows COVID cases could rise in Saskatoon

We could soon see an increase in COVID-19 cases in Saskatoon.

A study being done on the city’s wastewater by researchers at the University of Saskatchewan is showing a 312 per cent increase in the virus over numbers reported last week.

The study also shows that cases involving variants could be on the rise, with those numbers up seven per cent over last week.

The total number of COVID variants found in the wastewater makes up 86 per cent of cases.

Monday’s report says: “The rapid increase in viral RNA in the wastewater is expected to be predictive of a rapid increase of new cases in Saskatoon.”

So far, the researchers have found the B.1.1.7 (United Kingdom) variant of concern and have not yet found the Brazilian or South African variant in Saskatoon wastewater.

The study indicates the last time the wastewater was comparable to the levels seen now was in November, when case numbers rose to more than 100 per day in the following weeks. The team predicted that would happen after studying the wastewater at the time.

In Monday’s report, the researchers say most people with COVID-19 start shedding SARS-CoV-2 through their feces within 24 hours of being infected.

This “viral signal” detected in wastewater helps provide population-level estimates of the rate of infection in a city, indicating whether the number of infected people is increasing, decreasing or staying the same.

The report says this signal is a leading indicator of impending surges in the number of active cases by seven to 10 days following sample collection.