Singh’s strong debate won’t change election outcome says U of S political scientist

The NDP might still be in trouble this election, despite a strong showing by its leader, Jagmeet Singh, at Monday’s leaders debate, according to University of Saskatchewan political scientist Greg Poeltzer.

He was on the John Gormley Show last week predicting only nine seats across the country for the NDP.

Poeltzer doesn’t believe Monday’s debate did enough to change the outcome drastically for the party.

“I think Jagmeet Singh’s own personal political capital has certainly risen. He acquitted himself quite well during the debate but I don’t think it will change much.  It might mean he’ll be able to hang on to a couple of seats in Quebec but I don’t think it will change much in general,” he said. “So last week I was predicting that the NDP would end up with about nine seats. I think they’ll still end up maybe around 11 but I think they are still in real danger of losing official party status.”

Poeltzer believes that right now people, especially in B.C. and Ontario are flirting with either voting Green or NDP. But with more than 10 days until the election he thinks the Liberals have enough time to steal some of those votes.

“I think we are going to see some movement where (NDP and Green voters) are going to go and park their votes with the Liberals,” Poeltzer said. “The Liberals are masters at playing the fear tactic game and that a vote for the Greens and a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives and I think that is where it’s actually going to end up.”

According to Poeltzer, the biggest issue facing Singh and the NDP is surrounding Quebec’s Bill-21, and Singh’s reluctance to publicly choose a side.

Bill-21 is a law that forbids public service workers, like teachers, police officers and provincial judges from wearing religious clothing or symbols, like a hijab or turban, during work.

Poeltzer says if Singh intervenes in the court case it won’t play out well in English Canada but if he doesn’t it won’t play out well in Quebec.

In his view, the best option for Singh is to take the same stance as former NDP leader Tom Mulcair, and defend minority rights.

“It is very tough to say you are authentically concerned about minority rights in Canada and then not defend them and using all the powers that a prime minister would,” he said. “It’s going to cost him votes and seats in Quebec but honestly I think that will help him more in places like Ontario and B.C.”

In his last thoughts, Poeltzer said that this is going to be a historic election because it will be the last time the NDP will be what he describes as any kind of serious competitive force in the federal election.

“I always used to say that there is only three issues that matter in a federal election. The first issue is the economy, the second is the economy, and the third is the economy. In this one here I’d still say the first two issues are the economy but climate change has come into national politics like we’ve never seen before and that’s a game changer that’s only going to help the
Greens,” he said.

“And the NDP can’t out green the Greens, nobody can. I think the NDP have a real identity crisis of who they are as a party.”

With files from 650 CKOM’s Lisa Ford.